[Simulation 1]: Draft 2 | World ODI Teams (2010-present)

[jaybro]

Qualifer Match: #8 eugene vs #9 jaybro

eugene's innings is complete with a score of 3.401...that score would have put him in 5th place in the standings, so not bad.

jaybro needs a score of 3.402 or higher to knock eugene out. Can he do it.

Full scoresheet will be posted below once I finish jaybro's innings.

I have no idea what’s happening but I feel I’m out 1st up

[foreignfield]

Qualifer Match: #8 eugene vs #9 jaybro

eugene's innings is complete with a score of 3.401...that score would have put him in 5th place in the standings, so not bad.

jaybro needs a score of 3.402 or higher to knock eugene out. Can he do it.

Full scoresheet will be posted below once I finish jaybro's innings.

I have no idea what’s happening but I feel I’m out 1st up

Looking at eugene's score I reckon Raza went for plenty in his two overs.

[grant]

Qualifer Match: #8 eugene vs #9 jaybro

eugene's innings is complete with a score of 3.401...that score would have put him in 5th place in the standings, so not bad.

jaybro needs a score of 3.402 or higher to knock eugene out. Can he do it.

Full scoresheet will be posted below once I finish jaybro's innings.

I have no idea what’s happening but I feel I’m out 1st up

[brmtaylor.com admin]

There is one slight oversight in the calculations of brmtaylor.com's team where Wes is listed as an allrounder, although he went for Kallis as fifth bowler:

Kallis will be my fifth bowler

This should improve his score a bit.

I guess Kallis was a little rusty in the warm-ups and didn't bowl his full quota, but now we're in the playoffs he will certainly be called upon to bowl his full ten!

[foreignfield]

So I don't think I'll be changing anything afterall.

Please don't, it's going to be fun; but are you not using the same model for the playoffs also, only substituting run averages with actuals runs from the random innings?

Just as a distraction I've crunched a few numbers, randomly assuming that batters 1-3 account for 42 % of an ODI team's batting resources, no. 4-6 for 38 %, no. 7-8 for 15 % and the tailenders for 5 % (I'm sure someone somewhere out there in the cricket statto community has done the maths and has the actual stats at his fingertips, but for this thought experiment I've simply made an assumption).

I've used these percentages to give weight to each batter's performance (using your rationalized values) according to his batting position and come up with these batting averages (averages under Kriterion's model in brackets) :

eugene: 1.855 (1.521)
foreignfield: 1.654 (1.646)

I think that's a fairer reflection of the respective batting strenght of our sides. However, I assume that every other team's batting average will improve (the one's with long tails à la eugene, Zimbos_05 and Muddie28 should profit the most), therefore I don't know how much it will change the rankings--apart from the fact that it will sink me towards the bottom

[foreignfield]

1) grant - 4.408
2) foreignfield - 3.499
3) rusty - 3.474
4) brmtaylor - 3.407
5) zimbos - 3.342
6) Kriterion - 3.222
7) eugene - 3.188
7) mueddie - 3.188
9) jaybro - 3.092

Alternative rankings with completely unscientifically weighed batting averages :

1) grant -- 4.589
2) rusty -- 3.782
3) Zimbos -- 3.740
4) eugene -- 3.522
5) foreignfield -- 3.507
6) Kriterion -- 3.503
7) mueddie -- 3.492
8) brmtaylor.com -- 3.459
9) jaybro -- 3.274

So, grant stays in pole position, but the gap has been narrowed, and while eugene and Zimbos improve, brmtaylor.com loses ground (due to Dhoni and Jadeja not beeing able to weigh in as before at no. 7 and 8), and yours truly also drops down the rankings (my team now deservedly has the worst batting average, but my bowling keeps me in fifth position. Jaybro still with the wooden spoon, but if he swapped Steyn and Rabada in the batting order he could challenge brmtaylor.com (whose bowling averages I've left unchanged).

[Kriterion_BD]

So I don't think I'll be changing anything afterall.

Please don't, it's going to be fun; but are you not using the same model for the playoffs also, only substituting run averages with actuals runs from the random innings?

Yes! To normalize the batting scores I am now taking the 2 innings run total and dividing by 2 x batting average at that position (because the simulation is using 2 random innings).

[eugene]

I have no idea what is going on...

[Kriterion_BD]

Sorry for the delay guys. Should be able to finish the first game after I get home from work in a few hours.

The rest of the simulations won’t take as long as the first because I’ve got most of the formulas programmed now.

Just to clarify in case anyone is wondering: the 2 random innings for bowlers and all rounders are the same innings/match for batting and bowling.

I’m quite excited about the Test simulation now as well.

[zimbos_05]

1) grant - 4.408
2) foreignfield - 3.499
3) rusty - 3.474
4) brmtaylor - 3.407
5) zimbos - 3.342
6) Kriterion - 3.222
7) eugene - 3.188
7) mueddie - 3.188
9) jaybro - 3.092

Alternative rankings with completely unscientifically weighed batting averages :

1) grant -- 4.589
2) rusty -- 3.782
3) Zimbos -- 3.740
4) eugene -- 3.522
5) foreignfield -- 3.507
6) Kriterion -- 3.503
7) mueddie -- 3.492
8) brmtaylor.com -- 3.459
9) jaybro -- 3.274

So, grant stays in pole position, but the gap has been narrowed, and while eugene and Zimbos improve, brmtaylor.com loses ground (due to Dhoni and Jadeja not beeing able to weigh in as before at no. 7 and 8), and yours truly also drops down the rankings (my team now deservedly has the worst batting average, but my bowling keeps me in fifth position. Jaybro still with the wooden spoon, but if he swapped Steyn and Rabada in the batting order he could challenge brmtaylor.com (whose bowling averages I've left unchanged).

I like this