Yeah I think a lot of people - myself included - have hyped the Afghans up. Granted they aren't this bad either, but thats how you get an average of two extremes.TapsC wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:46 amIt really is a 50/50 For me. Yes I am happy because the heat will leave Zimbabwe for a bit. Imagine that was us people would have been calling for us to lose full membership. Afghanistan have it easy. Every time we lose to a smaller nation cricket wise it's a train smash and people start questioning our ability. This is a big wake up call to them. International cricket at test nation level is brutal. For so long they were the best of the rest now they are current the worst team amongst the best. It's not easy.
We get hammered every year. Teams like India basically send their C team to play us. It's painful if you really think about it. All we want to do is compete. We have been through a lot. From Hayden destroying us with 380, getting bowled out for 34 and the boxing day test last year. Then these guys come around have a few good years and suddenly people think Rashid Khan and co are world beaters. It's a long journey. Wasn't Ray Price ranked number one at some point? Andy Flower too?
Anyway my point is that Afghanistan have a long way to go before they can really consider themselves a quality team. Yes we go through a lot but we have beaten 9 out of the 11 test teams in the last 5 years in one format or the other yet we are still minnows. Only S.A. and England who we don't play at all are not on that list. Let them achieve that or Bangladesh level success first then they can positively say they are beyond us. This has brought them back to reality. This whole meteoric rise nonsense stops now. They have to earn their place over time like everybody else.
You are spot on, Afghanistan will now be going from best of rest to worst of the best. That is a hard transition and a steep learning curve. It will also not just be how much talent they unearth on the field. How smoothly and competently the ACB runs things will also play a huge, possibly biggest factor. Bangladesh have presently hit a wall beyond which they cannot climb unless and until they have a massive overhaul of their entire cricket system. Pakistan have been mediocre across formats for well over a decade now. Its not easy.
One of WI/IRE will have 4 points, the other 2 going into the super 6.From a tournament perspective which is the most important. It's hard to tell. Now that the Netherlands have also basically been shown the door barring a miracle It might not matter whether Afghanistan is there or not. If things go as expected it's a shootout between us and Ireland. Ireland have the advantage now because in the super 6 stage they will have 1 tough game whilst we will have 2. The only way it balances out is if we beat Scotland and Hong Kong. Then the pressure will be on Ireland as we will have to win 2 games whilst they will have to win all 3.
ZIM if they run the table will have 4, but if they lose to Scotland or HK will likely only take 2 points forward.
Thus one of WI/IRE are almost guaranteed to qualify. For ZIM, the game vs SCO is a pseudo-knock out. The game vs IRE is a pseudo knock out. The game vs WI is a pseudo knock out. Possibly the game vs HK as well.
But I still predict that WI/IRE may still very well slip up themselves. But that means ZIM may slip up - as they almost did vs AFG. But Scotland could slip up vs HK. Its literally the most excruciatingly designed tournament in the history of tournaments.