TapsC wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:04 am
I agree with this. I dont know if we are a better team but I would say its fairly even there. Add Sri Lanka and the West Indies to that list too and you get a group of teams who can beat each other in home conditions.The team that comes 9th should face some kind of relegation challenge.
I disagree and I will lay out a few reasons for my hypothesis. I use the word hypothesis, because I don't want to claim that a given side is absolutely stronger than another, but rather that one team is "most likely" or "reasonably understood" to be stronger than another.
On the one hand, its straight-forward to say abc teams are "fairly even" with xyz teams as just a stand alone statement. However, giving a few detailed points can strengthen any particular point of view. So I will argue that
the gap between the top 9 Test teams and the next group is still substantially large, generally speaking. A year ago, I would not have added the "generally speaking" caveat, but in the past 12 months Bangladesh has lost home Tests to both Zimbabwe and Afghanistan.
Bangladesh
I'll start with my team first. Bangladesh, even at full strength is MILES behind teams like India, England, Australia, and New Zealand. However, Bangladesh are "most likely" a notch or two above Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, and Ireland. The reason I say this is because Bangladesh, for better or worse, rely on 4-5 players (Shakib, Mushfiq, Tamim, Miraz, Mustafiz) with the remaining players contributing little to nothing. On the face of it, when 2 players are missing from a series, its "only a couple of players" yes. But for an imbalanced side such as Bangladesh, its half of their performing players. Shakib actually counts as 2 players in one. So for example, against Afghanistan, Tamim and Mustafiz were missing and that is 30-40% of the contributing players (2 players out of 5 = 40%). There presence of one key player can have a synergistic, sum-is-greater-than-the-parts effect. Tamim's presence stabilizes the opener at the other end, which in turn prevents the top order from walking into the crease earlier than desired. In the Zimbabwe loss, 3 performers were out with Tamim and Shakib's absence. Again thats 50-60% of the contributing 4-5 players. The final margin was 150 runs, and its theoretically possible for Tamim and Shakib to have added 75 runs across 4 batting innings, and saved another 75 across 2 bowling innings. Shakib, Tamim, and Mushfiq are particularly essential players, given that they have contributed against almost every team, in almost every condition. Although the statistics don't seem to support this claim, I think almost everyone would agree with that point.
Ultimately, in the big picture analysis, Bangladesh are
most likely significantly ahead of ZIM, AFG, and IRE.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka are similar to Bangladesh in that when they are in form, they can be very good (2-0 win in South Africa), but when they aren't they can struggle to beat Zimbabwe without some help from the umpires. Of course, Sri Lanka are a notch or two better than Bangladesh.
Ultimately, in the big picture analysis, Sri Lanka are
most likely significantly ahead of ZIM, AFG, and IRE.
West Indies
Like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the Windies could potentially lose a Test here or there to ZIM/IRE/AFG...in fact they failed to win their most recent one against Zimbabwe. But the Windies, at full strength can still be formidable, as the Afghan team just found out.
Ultimately, the West Indies are
most likely significantly ahead of ZIM, AFG, and IRE.
Pakistan
I'm not sure why Pakistan gets a pass in this discussion. They are faring quite abysmally in Australia at the moment, and aren't significantly better results wise than Sri Lanka. South Africa might also be in the Pakistan club. Basically, there is no way they are in the same bracket as the top 4 of India, England, Australia, and New Zealand.
My bottom line is that while Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, and Ireland might win a Test or two against a Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, or West Indies...over a 3-4 year period, spanning 20+ Tests, they will
most likely be at least a notch below the latter sides.