Corona

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Kriterion_BD
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Re: Corona

Post by Kriterion_BD »

ZIMDOGGY wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 1:34 pm


I saw a graph that was widely distributed two months ago on what happens to the corona spread correlated to people adhering to lockdowns.
The jist of it was;
If 90% of people adhere, it goes within three months.
If 80% adhere, it drops down significantly and starts to Peter out at the back end of 2020.
If 70% adhere, it keeps spreading but at a controlled rate where it doesn't go berserk and take over the country, but isn't eradicated in any way.
Sounds logical. 90% is probably the highest any society can hope to achieve because 10% of wokers will always be essential (healthcare, food services, police, support staff).

Where I live I would say we are between the 70-80% mark just hazarding a guess.
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eugene
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Re: Corona

Post by eugene »

As much as I question lockdowns, I wish the USA could just agree to lockdown all but essential business until August and then we might see the back of this thing. I fear we are going to be fighting this thing for years at the rate we are going. That being said, my area has had very few cases (96) and currently has nobody hospitalized.

The other option is to do nothing and just move on with those who survive.

Either option seems better than a half-arsed lockdown where you get the worst of both worlds - lack of freedom and deaths.
Neil Johnson, Alistair Campbell, Murray Goodwin, Andy Flower (w), Grant Flower, Dave Houghton, Guy Whittall, Heath Streak (c), Andy Blignaut, Ray Price, Eddo Brandes

Kriterion_BD
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Re: Corona

Post by Kriterion_BD »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... =nextdraft

Interesting polling data from the US. The lockdown and social distancing are both massively popular amongst rural Americans as well as non-college educated white Americans - both heavily pro-Trump groups. About 75% of both groups (and Americans overall) view the lockdowns as appropriate and necessary.
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Kriterion_BD
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Re: Corona

Post by Kriterion_BD »

eugene wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:17 am

The other option is to do nothing and just move on with those who survive.
Thats not an option at all. At least not yet. What happens if 10 or 25% of our doctors and nurses end up not surviving since they have the greatest exposure? Society would literally go back to the dark ages in terms of healthcare.

What happens if a large number of teachers or farmers succumb.

If a year goes by, and we are nowhere near a vaccine or control of the spread of COVID and the economy is in shambles then it may be time to revisit and figure out if we bite the bullet and just let it spread to all to weed out those who won't survive. But even then, its still not confirmed that infection and recovery results in immunity so that may not work either.
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ZIMDOGGY
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Re: Corona

Post by ZIMDOGGY »

Didn't think I'd agree with Kriterion on a POLITICAL issue, but here we are. 2020 a hell of a thang.
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eugene
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Re: Corona

Post by eugene »

Kriterion_BD wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 7:36 am
eugene wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:17 am

The other option is to do nothing and just move on with those who survive.
Thats not an option at all. At least not yet. What happens if 10 or 25% of our doctors and nurses end up not surviving since they have the greatest exposure? Society would literally go back to the dark ages in terms of healthcare.

What happens if a large number of teachers or farmers succumb.

If a year goes by, and we are nowhere near a vaccine or control of the spread of COVID and the economy is in shambles then it may be time to revisit and figure out if we bite the bullet and just let it spread to all to weed out those who won't survive. But even then, its still not confirmed that infection and recovery results in immunity so that may not work either.
I agree, currently this should not be an option. It will only become an option if this drags on for years. If children can't go to school for one or two years that will doom education for an entire generation of children.
Neil Johnson, Alistair Campbell, Murray Goodwin, Andy Flower (w), Grant Flower, Dave Houghton, Guy Whittall, Heath Streak (c), Andy Blignaut, Ray Price, Eddo Brandes

Kriterion_BD
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Re: Corona

Post by Kriterion_BD »

I don’t think education will suffer greatly. With the rise of online courses and Academies kids will not miss much in terms of academic learning. They will suffer from the social isolation however as will everyone else.

Some more promising data.

The US state of Georgia was one of the first to open up for business some 3 weeks ago. And new cases are actually slightly lower (6% decrease). If this holds, there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

Here’s to hoping international cricket and the NBA can return before the new year.
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eugene
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Re: Corona

Post by eugene »

Funny thing is, I see some people on social media actually disappointed that numbers are holding steady or even falling in states that opened early like Georgia and Florida. I guess some actually like pandemics? Or they are just upset their predictions were wrong?
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ZIMDOGGY
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Re: Corona

Post by ZIMDOGGY »

I'm a bit weirded out that cricket is not even being played.

It's no contact, and the only real issue I see is when bowlers shine the ball, a practice that can surely be worked around.
Cricinfo profile of the 'James Bond' of cricket:

FULL NAME: Angus James Mackay
BORN: 13 June 1967, Harare
KNOWN AS: Gus Mackay

'The' Gus Mackay.

Hero.
Sportsman.
Artist.
Player.

**
Q. VUSI SIBANDA, WHERE DO YOU HOP?

A. UNDA DA ENTERTAINMENT CENTRE*

ZIMDOGGY
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Supports: MidWest Rhinos

Re: Corona

Post by ZIMDOGGY »

Even the NRL is returning in 1.5 weeks. Full on contact sport.

The key that got them through is they will be subject to testing every day I think.

It was the last contact sport to go (held out till late March) and was the first to come back.

Is it the only professional contact sport to do so in the world ?
Cricinfo profile of the 'James Bond' of cricket:

FULL NAME: Angus James Mackay
BORN: 13 June 1967, Harare
KNOWN AS: Gus Mackay

'The' Gus Mackay.

Hero.
Sportsman.
Artist.
Player.

**
Q. VUSI SIBANDA, WHERE DO YOU HOP?

A. UNDA DA ENTERTAINMENT CENTRE*

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