[Simulation 1]: Draft 2 | World ODI Teams (2010-present)

[jaybro]

I have no idea what is going on...

Me either

[Kriterion_BD]

OK so here is the very first match simulation "scorecard" plus match report:

#8 eugene
vs
#9 jaybro

eugene (3.401) beats jaybro (1.949) by 1.452 points

Team eugene thrashed team jaybro in style romping to a colossal win of nearly 1.5 points. Team eugene amassed a competive score well in excess of 3 on the backs of a scintillating performance from Tillakaratne Dilshan who had a century and a half-century in his two innings. Babar Azam also chipped in with a hundred of his own, while Martin Guptill and Kane Williamson had solid contributions with the bat, both earning scores in excess of 1.5 (with 1 being an "average" score). Andre Russell was carnage down the order with a blistering strike rate of 165 from both his innings combined. Eugene also had solid bowling performances from Clint McKay and Russell who both claimed five-fors, while Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Shami, and Trent Boult also added three wickets each.

A target of 3.4 was always going to be difficult for Team jaybro to chase down, especially since had the last pick in the draft. However, few of his players contributed with both bat and ball. Apart from Rohit Sharma (2.085) crossing 100 runs total, none of his top order really got going. To make matters worse Dale Steyn went wicketless and Kuldeep Yadav managed just a solitary wicket, going at over 7 an over. Mohammad Amir was the one bright spot with his 5 wicket total earning him a respectable score of 1.929. In the end however, neither jaybro's batting nor his bowling was able to average even 1 point, as he succumbed to massive defeat in ZCF's first ever manual simulation cricket game.

[Kriterion_BD]

So eugene's score in the standings was 3.188 but he got 3.401 in the simulation. Jaybro's went down from 3.092 to 1.949. Bad luck on jaybro's part, although eugene's team is very strong on paper.

[jaybro]

I’ve got no idea how this thing works; I realise that making BMac my captain was silly but the rest of my side was really good.

Anyways

[CrimsonAvenger]

Yeah, I would have made KC Sanga as skipper given that team, but who knows. ..

You might be having those feelings that Faf, Shaun Pollock, Hansie Cronje and others had over the years at the World cups I guess

But yeah, this is definitely better than being the 9th best team from the draw. In the absence of any other method, Kriterion's hard work to get this going is to be appreciated...

[Kriterion_BD]

I’ve got no idea how this thing works; I realise that making BMac my captain was silly but the rest of my side was really good.

Anyways

Yeah your bowling attack is good, at least statistically. Bmac was a bit of a slogger. In the rankings what hurt was having 2 mediocre stats guys in Jaya and Duminy. In the simulation what hurt was Duminy and Watson both scored ducks and Raza scored just 12 in two innings combined. Honestly, eugene's lineup was never going to be beaten even if you had good luck, but it was bad luck that most of your guys had terrible innings.

[Kriterion_BD]

I’ve got no idea how this thing works; I realise that making BMac my captain was silly but the rest of my side was really good.

Anyways

If you have gmail I can share the doc with you and you see the specific formulas. So far only rusty is able to see them.

[foreignfield]

Great work, Kriterion. This is really fascinating.

Out of curiosity I've put the numbers from the two random innings through a different mixer, ignoring median values, just using the actual numbers, and turning this into one 50 over match. Same result but a much smaller margin of victory.

eugene: 283/5 (50 overs)
beat
jaybro: 261 all out in the 47th over

The difference to Kriterion's standard model mainly rests in the pedestrian SR of KW, Baba, Morgan and Hussey who ate up so many balls that Andre Russell never got to bat (or is not out, not having faced a ball). Eugene's bowlers also went for plenty, their econ. is slightly worse than jaybro's, and this has boosted jaybro's mediocre batting performance somewhat. Eugene's bowlers took enough wickets to bowl jaybro out, though (this was actually a lucky statistical break for my simulation because it perfectly fits the fact that jaybro's batters did not make full use of their 50 overs ... I haven't yet found a convincing way to take wickets into account; therefore the bowling performance mainly rests on econ.)

Summary:
After an explosive start to his innings eugene's middle order, despite a solid contribution by Baba Azam, couldn't really switch into second gear. Excellent death bowling by Steyn, Watson and Aamir restricted eugene to a slightly disappointing total after his good start. In reply, McCullum and Sharma laid a solid foundation for the run chase, going after Mohammad Shami in particular. But once Saeed Ajmal had removed both openers and Clint McKay trapped Sanga lbw, the floodgates opened. Wickets kept tumbling all around Mahela Jayawardene who bravely tried to keep his side in the hunt. McKay with a well-deserved 5-for and Andre Russell sliced through jaybro's lower order and completed what was, in the end, a comfortabel victory for eugene.

[foreignfield]

As an afterthought and allowing for a bit of flexibility during the course of the match: If eugene's think tank had promoted Andre Russell ahead of Hussey to up the run rate, Russel's quickfire 51* from 31 balls would have taken eugene's total to 296 and an even more convincing win.

As I've mentioned Eugene's bowlers took a lot of wickets, in fact 13 per 50 overs if I'm not mistaken. Roughly assuming that one extra wicket (more than ten) reduces the opposition's batting resources by 10 %, i.e. 5 overs, jaybro should have been all out after 35 overs; subsequently eugene's poor economy rate also weighs less heavily.

eugene: 295/5 (50 overs)
jaybro: 210 all out after 35 overs.

That looks a bit more convincing.

I'm not sure anyone has followed me this far

Over to you again, Kriterion and the rest of the playoffs.

[CrimsonAvenger]

These are definitely more relatable numbers, foreignfield!