My thoughts on the match -
I find it very hard to be confident about Zimbabwe's chances considering the amount of players missing from the XI, you could argue there six players at home that could/ should be in the side for the first Test. But with the likes of BT, Ervine & KJ missing is this the chance for Tari, Burl, Wes & Blessing to step out and show that the next chapter of Zimbabwe cricket can be a fruitful one?
The fact Rashid Khan is out is a game changer, I really felt if he played that regardless of what the rest of his team mates produced, he would take 11 or 12 wickets and probably score a quick fire 50 to bury Zimbabwe, the absence of his batting is huge in itself, the rest of the Afghanistan bowlers can't really hold a bat, so his runs at No.8 could have been vital. Sure Amir Hamza & Zahir Khan will cause Zimbabwe problems, but Rashid is a different beast and his absence gives Zimbabwe a chance.
As always in Dubai winning the toss and batting puts you well ahead of your opponent, but only if you take advantage of it! If Zimbabwe are able to win the the toss they need to make sure their batsman show the same application, concentration and determination they have thus far in the warm up games. All the seven batsman who are likely to be named have been in and amongst the runs during the two home intra-squad matches at home and also the game last week against Afghanistan at the academy ground, and they'll all need to contribute runs here.
I think it's pretty clear Zimbabwe will go with the 8-3 lineup and use the all-round options of Burl, Wes, Raza & Williams to subsidise the runs and hopefully wickets missing from a 4th front line bowler. Whether Zimbabwe decide to go with three seamers and no front line spinner is probably the biggest question mark over the final XI, I think the fact neither Wellington or Mavuta have much experience or form behind them might lead the brains trust into going this way.
The next question is which three seamers do you play? Blessing seems to be a lock, whilst I think the selectors are very tempted to pick Ngarava to open the bowling with Blessing, this would give Zimbabwe two big tall bowlers (Right & left hand combo as well) which could cause the Afghanistan batsman some trouble. The remaining spot will come down to either Tiripano or Nyauchi, considering both bowlers are similar in speed and ability, it will likely come down to batting and clearly 'the Don' wins that debate.
Tiripano's experience and ability to bowl long tight spells on wickets that offer nothing to him, will also hold him in good stead when it comes to the selection table, with Blessing having only One test innings of bowling under his belt, and Ngarava being on debut it makes more sense for Tiripano to be picked. In all likely hood the decision will come down to either Nyauchi or Ngarava, unless they do spring a surprise and pick a spinner. The other thing to consider is that in the 5 Tests under Rajput, Zimbabwe have always played a traditional 7-4 lineup, so they could spring another surprise and pick 3 seamers and a spinner.
My XI
Kasuza
Masvaure
Musakanda
Williams c
Burl
Raza
Madhevere
Regis wk
Tiripano
Blessing
Ngarava
All in all it looks to be a fascinating matchup between two sides who rarely play this form of cricket and who are both missing some key players. If you don't like my preview here's a link to the espncricinfo preview
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/afg ... ch-preview
blessing!