2015 World Cup stats analysis

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Kriterion_BD
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2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by Kriterion_BD » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:38 pm

With the group stage completed, here's how the stats shape up. World Cups are perhaps the best way to compare teams as they all play in similar if not identical conditions against the same opponents. There is also the pressure that comes with a global ICC event in front of the largest audience cricket will ever get.

Seam Attacks for Each Team

The seam attacks are rated according to a simple formula: 100 * [wickets per match/(bowling econ^3 * bowling average)].

The bowling average is actually the normalized average, with the team with a median average given a normalized average of 1. Cubing the economy rate, gives more weight to tidy attacks, as everyone will agree chasing a total of 200-2 from 50 overs is easier than chasing 350 all out.

Here is how the final rankings turned out:

12.182 - India
11.179 - Australia
9.048 - South Africa
7.234 - New Zealand
4.034 - Pakistan
3.593 - West Indies
3.192 - Afghanistan
2.884 - Sri Lanka
2.047 - Scotland
1.934 - England
1.806 - Bangladesh
1.565 - United Arab Emirates
0.772 - Ireland
0.648 - Zimbabwe

So jaybro, you were right BD were nowhere near having a top 6 seam attack at the World Cup. However, we were very close to England who nearly everyone predicted as having a top 5 seam attack. I know you hadn't rated Taskin as anything special even though there aren't many teenage bowlers averaging 140 kph, but he took 6 wickets @ 42.66 with 6.24 econ and often bowled 48th, 50th overs at the death. He created at least 4 good chances (Shenwari fended a nasty bouncer that a keeper taller than Mushy could have taken, Shakib dropping a somewhat tough one but the ball popped out at the last second, Taskin himself dropped a sitter of Sanga off his own bowling - although the catch was a sitter, him getting to it on his follow throw required immense athleticism, Tamim dropped Woakes which was a total sitter and almost lost us the game). I think those 4 drops cost him 3 runs, and so he could have easily averaged 25.30 with 10 wickets to his name. Very impressive for the second youngest player at the world cup - and prolly the absolute youngest cuz Usman Ghani is most likely not 18.

Overall Team Performance


Basically took the ratio of each teams batting average and run rate to their bowling average and economy rate. No real surprises here, the 8 quarterfinalists all take the top 8 spots.

3.277 - India
2.698 - South Africa
2.467 - New Zealand
2.466 - Australia
1.571 - Sri Lanka
1.196 - West Indies
1.046 - Pakistan
0.969 - Bangladesh
0.763 - England
0.523 - Ireland
0.487 - Zimbabwe
0.436 - Scotland
0.348 - UAE
0.343 - Afghanistan

India were quite beastly as they outperformed even Australia and New Zealand. Credit to their bowlers for taking all 60 available wickets.

Now you might think BD escaped by having a washout against Australia and its probably true. Although NZ were just as good and we really pushed them to the max on perhaps the most seaming/swinging wicket in the tournament. But assuming Australia racked up 400-5 against us and bundled us out for 150, we'd only slip to 9th below England, and still be far ahead of Ireland with a ratio of 0.666. And thats the worst case scenario.

I had said in the OP of the other thread that BD's best bet was to beat either of England or SL and progress, and thats what happened. Even the SL game, we played at 10% of our potential and SL played at about 75% and they only won by 90 odd runs. The challenge of course is for BD to consistently play at 75%.

As for Zimbabwe, they were close to keeping up with Ireland, but the concern is what happens when you take Taylor and his two World Cup centuries out? The reality is Zimbabwe cannot retain their talent, and without that talent, Zimbabwe will struggle to keep pace even with Associates.

Ireland will be kicking themselves for not qualifying and have only themselves to blame, they kept picking the same shitty seamers when they had young guys like Chase and Young on the bench.

Afghanistan are Bangladesh lite. Lots of big talk from their players and fans, and very little to back that up. Finished as the statistically worst team of the tournament despite the win against Scotland. They have a long ways to go despite having the most talent amongst the Associates.
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Kriterion_BD
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by Kriterion_BD » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:40 pm

* only seamers who bowled at least 6 overs per innings were considered. thus Mire and Chigumbura weren't included in the analysis.
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jaybro
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by jaybro » Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:01 pm

Very concerning how badly our seam attack performed ......
1.G.Flower 2.B.Taylor 3.M.Goodwin 4.A.Flower 5.D.Houghton 6.N.Johnson 7.T.Taibu 8.P.Strang 9.H.Streak 10.R.Price 11.H.Olonga 12.A.Campbell

foreignfield
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by foreignfield » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:01 am

Very interesting analysis, Kriterion.

On a totally subjective level I would have rated Bangladesh's seam attack at least on par with SL and even ahead of England, who only fired against the minnows while bowling a lot of brainless stuff against Test opposition.

I think SA have been underwhelming so far, it really makes me wonder how they ended up ahead of New Zealand.

Aus
NZ
Pak
India
SA
Windies
Afgh
BD (Afgh and BD could easily swap places)
SL
Engl
Scotl (I haven't seen enough of them to pass a judgement really)
Zim (that's maybe generous, but it's taking into account that we played the most inocuous part-time/spin attack of all teams and our seamers were always on a hiding to nothing when they came back for slog overs)
Irel
UAE

Again, a totally subjective ranking :)

Kriterion_BD
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by Kriterion_BD » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:04 pm

jaybro wrote:Very concerning how badly our seam attack performed ......
Jaybro, I don't like those numbers either...mainly because BD ended up doing a lot worse than I anticipated :D . I realized that my initial objective of giving precedence to bowlers' econ rates was not achieved with the above analysis. I'm tweaking the stats and lets see how it turns up.
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Kriterion_BD
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by Kriterion_BD » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:46 pm

Ok rejigged the data...new formula correctly weighs econ 2/3 and bowling average only 1/3.

Formula = 5 * (wickets/match) * (2/3 normalized econ) * (1/3 normalized average)

16.989 - Australia
15.336 - India
12.046 - South Africa
9.985 - New Zealand
7.009 - West Indies
6.562 - Sri Lanka
6.411 - Pakistan
5.561 - Afghanistan
4.860 - Scotland
3.937 - England
3.715 - Bangladesh
3.582 - United Arab Emirates
2.226 - Ireland
1.556 - Zimbabwe

I guess numbers don't lie. The stats/rankings are fairly consistent from both formulas used.
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Kriterion_BD
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by Kriterion_BD » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:53 pm

Ahh...mitigating factor. Could not understand how SL ranked ahead of PAK in the revised seam attack analysis. They had more wickets/match (6 vs 5). And teams which bowl more overs of pace will tend to have more wickets/match. BD had the 2nd fewest overs of front line seam bowled (118.3), PAK and SL bowled the most pace (197.1 and 191.4 overs respectively).

Australia bowled the fewest overs of front line seam, yet still managed to top the table! Impressive!
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Koniec12
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by Koniec12 » Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:02 am

It is impressive indeed.

ultimate5
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Re: 2015 World Cup stats analysis

Post by ultimate5 » Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:22 am

What is impressive?

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