Zimbabwe was already in decline and behind Kenya by 2003

[pariah]

Kenya smash a "strong" Zimbabwe side. Johnson and Goodwin had long left ... because of the previous administration.

zk.png (97.8 KiB) Viewed 2943 times

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WC loss to Kenya - 2003:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8039 ... 6th-Super/
Very narrow revenge win - 2003:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8534 ... 3rd-Match/
New youngsters beat ageing Kenya side - 2006:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/1467 ... a-1st-ODI/

[pariah]

Even if the likes of Streak, Grant, Wishart, Carlisle, Sean Ervine, Price, Blignaut and Marillier had remained, the reality is Zimbabwe was already behind Kenya, with youngsters like Blignaut, Sean Ervine and Travis Friend not looking like they were in any way superior or a lasting solution.

With or without them Zimbabwe would have still remained the bottom-ranked side in international cricket, and been overtaken by this Bangladesh side either way. Much like the new young Zimbabwe side eventually beat that great then ageing Kenya side.

Up until 2003, Zimbabwe only lost once to Kenya in 13 matches. Since 2004 Zimbabwe lost 4 times in 16 matches. It could also be argued that had that Zimbabwe played another 3 matches against that Kenya side, they could have easily lost them as much as won them, possibly making those stats even. Kenya is just a useful measure of where Zimbabwe's abilities were at that stage, but overall figures qualify this as well.

Since 2004, Zimbabwe have won 80 in 327 matches. Up until December 2003, Zimbabwe won just 73 in 309 matches. Of these 327 matches, 70 were Tests, and Zimbabwe won just 7 of them - 3 of which were against Bangladesh, with two each from IND and PAK(including a win in that fixed match against PAK). To put things into perspective, since Jan 2004 Zimbabwe have won 4 Test matches out of 31 - 3 of which were against Bangladesh too, plus that also famous win against PAK. In consolation it could be argued that Zimbabwe did draw more, but most of them were due to weather, in matches that ZIM would have lost. So hypothetically, one can say ZIM drew 2 times in 31 Tests, but the former ZIM side would have lost even more, and drew even less. In that case, 2 draws vs 12 draws doesn't sound like a huge margin.

This is precisely why even Cricinfo doesn't factor in the old Zimbabwe side at any point in their stat making. Both generations were hopeless!!! You only need to look at the respective individual player averages to appreciate this fact. With the "tougher opposition" argument comprehensively offset by the "raw and inexperienced, lacking consistent matches, poorly administered and unpaid" argument.

By and large, we bemoan what does not and never did exist. Statistically, it is still to proven if the departures of the rebels did change much. They failed to chase down a tiny target against West Indies. Zimbabwe was a much stronger batting unit than WI, whose bowlers were older and much slower.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/1570 ... e-1st-Test

[eugene]

Bangladesh were always going to surpass Zimbabwe, everyone knew that - so no points for you there. Grant Flower even said as much 15 years ago.

The loss to Kenya in the 2003 CWC wasn't really all that surprising. Zimbabwe had nothing to play for and Kenya had everything to play for. Of course this Kenya side was its peak and by 2004-05 had already begun its steep decline into oblivion. The 2003 CWC wasn't the start of something bigger for Kenyan cricket, it was the end of something big.

[CrimsonAvenger]

I agree. Even with the 2011 CWC squad, Kenya were way better as i had already analyzed before: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2015&start=30#p23993

Actaully, the 2011 CWC squad of Kenya is way better than that of Zim. Let me explain:

The squads:

Zimbabwe: Elton Chigumbura (captain), Regis Chakabva, Charles Coventry, Graeme Cremer, Craig Ervine, Sean Ervine, Greg Lamb, Shingi Masakadza, Chris Mpofu, Ray Price, Ed Rainsford, Tatenda Taibu, Brendan Taylor, Prosper Utseya, Sean Williams.

Kenya: Jimmy Kamande (capt), Seren Waters, Alex Obanda, David Obuya, Collins Obuya, Steve Tikolo, Tanmay Mishra, Rakep Patel, Maurice Ouma, Thomas Odoyo, Nehemiah Odhiambo, Elijah Otieno, Peter Ongondo, Shem Ngoche, James Ngoche.


Now, for the comparisons:

Jimmy Kamande (1028 runs @ 18.03, Career ODI bowling Average of 44.42) > Prosper Utseya (984 runs @ 15.87, Career ODI bowling average of 46.11)
Tanmay Mishra (Averages 31.73 after 29 ODIs, has bowled 3 deliveries in ODIs) > Charles Coventry (Averages 26.76 after 34 ODIs, has bowled 0 deliveries in ODIs)
James Ngoche (9 matches, 13 wickets @ 18.23; Economy rate: 3.08) > Greg Lamb (9 matches, 8 wickets @ 33.37; Economy rate: 3.98)
We already know this one: Alex Obanda (Career ODI batting average: 34.18) > Brendan Taylor (Career ODI batting average: 32.42)
Collins Obuya (Career ODI batting average: 24.07; Career ODI blowling average Vs. Srilanka: 8.85) > Graeme Cremer (Career ODI batting average: 13.56; Career ODI bowling average Vs. Srilanka: 35.50)
Nehemiah Odhiambo (57 wickets @ 34.29) > Christopher Mpofu (54 wickets @ 37.03)
Thomas Odoyo (Career ODI batting average: 24.12; Career ODI bowling average: 29.66) > Elton Chigumbura (Career ODI batting average: 24.12; Career ODI bowling average: 38.27)
Peter Ongondo (77 wickets @ 29.46) > Ed Rainsford (45 wickets at 31.13)
Elijah Otieno (Career ODI economy rate: 5.87) > Shingi Masakadza (Career ODI economy rate: 8.01)
Maurice Ouma (Highest ODI score: 61) > Regis Chakabva (Highest ODI score: 45)
Seren Waters (Highest ODI score: 74; Career ODI sixes: 1) > Craig Ervine (Highest ODI score: 67*; Career ODI sixes: 0)
Rakep Patel (Highest ODI score: 92; Career ODI economy rate: 4.69) > Sean Williams (Highest ODI score: 75; Career ODI economy rate: 5.05)
David Obuya (Batting average Vs. Zim: 30.70) > Tatenda Taibu (Batting average Vs. Kenya: 14.00)
Steve Tikolo (Career ODI batting average: 29.88; Career ODI bowling average: 32.86) > Sean Ervine (Career ODI batting average: 25.85; Career ODI bowling average: 38.07)

And the clinching one:

Shem Ngoche (Career ODI economy rate: 3.40) > Raymond Price (Career ODI economy rate: 3.88)

[eugene]

I agree. Even with the 2011 CWC squad, Kenya were way better as i had already analyzed before: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2015&start=30#p23993

Actaully, the 2011 CWC squad of Kenya is way better than that of Zim. Let me explain:

The squads:

Zimbabwe: Elton Chigumbura (captain), Regis Chakabva, Charles Coventry, Graeme Cremer, Craig Ervine, Sean Ervine, Greg Lamb, Shingi Masakadza, Chris Mpofu, Ray Price, Ed Rainsford, Tatenda Taibu, Brendan Taylor, Prosper Utseya, Sean Williams.

Kenya: Jimmy Kamande (capt), Seren Waters, Alex Obanda, David Obuya, Collins Obuya, Steve Tikolo, Tanmay Mishra, Rakep Patel, Maurice Ouma, Thomas Odoyo, Nehemiah Odhiambo, Elijah Otieno, Peter Ongondo, Shem Ngoche, James Ngoche.


Now, for the comparisons:

Jimmy Kamande (1028 runs @ 18.03, Career ODI bowling Average of 44.42) > Prosper Utseya (984 runs @ 15.87, Career ODI bowling average of 46.11)
Tanmay Mishra (Averages 31.73 after 29 ODIs, has bowled 3 deliveries in ODIs) > Charles Coventry (Averages 26.76 after 34 ODIs, has bowled 0 deliveries in ODIs)
James Ngoche (9 matches, 13 wickets @ 18.23; Economy rate: 3.08) > Greg Lamb (9 matches, 8 wickets @ 33.37; Economy rate: 3.98)
We already know this one: Alex Obanda (Career ODI batting average: 34.18) > Brendan Taylor (Career ODI batting average: 32.42)
Collins Obuya (Career ODI batting average: 24.07; Career ODI blowling average Vs. Srilanka: 8.85) > Graeme Cremer (Career ODI batting average: 13.56; Career ODI bowling average Vs. Srilanka: 35.50)
Nehemiah Odhiambo (57 wickets @ 34.29) > Christopher Mpofu (54 wickets @ 37.03)
Thomas Odoyo (Career ODI batting average: 24.12; Career ODI bowling average: 29.66) > Elton Chigumbura (Career ODI batting average: 24.12; Career ODI bowling average: 38.27)
Peter Ongondo (77 wickets @ 29.46) > Ed Rainsford (45 wickets at 31.13)
Elijah Otieno (Career ODI economy rate: 5.87) > Shingi Masakadza (Career ODI economy rate: 8.01)
Maurice Ouma (Highest ODI score: 61) > Regis Chakabva (Highest ODI score: 45)
Seren Waters (Highest ODI score: 74; Career ODI sixes: 1) > Craig Ervine (Highest ODI score: 67*; Career ODI sixes: 0)
Rakep Patel (Highest ODI score: 92; Career ODI economy rate: 4.69) > Sean Williams (Highest ODI score: 75; Career ODI economy rate: 5.05)
David Obuya (Batting average Vs. Zim: 30.70) > Tatenda Taibu (Batting average Vs. Kenya: 14.00)
Steve Tikolo (Career ODI batting average: 29.88; Career ODI bowling average: 32.86) > Sean Ervine (Career ODI batting average: 25.85; Career ODI bowling average: 38.07)

And the clinching one:

Shem Ngoche (Career ODI economy rate: 3.40) > Raymond Price (Career ODI economy rate: 3.88)

This is quite possibly the best statistical analysis ever displayed on ZCF.

[Jemisi]

One swallow does not a summer make.

We beat SA in '99 WC. Didn't mean we were better than them. That team regularly smashed Kenya. They had a bad day and Kenya were on a roll. Doesn't mean we were going to be behind them in the rankings. Why not post all the scorecards of Zim v Kenya instead of one?

A sample size of one may be a FACT, but it is not necessarily a statistically significant fact.

Struggling to believe you don't understand that, which raises questions about how you handle stats in general.

[Kriterion_BD]

Struggling to believe you don't understand that, which raises questions about how you handle stats in general.

With a cherry picker?

[grant]

I agree. Even with the 2011 CWC squad, Kenya were way better as i had already analyzed before: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2015&start=30#p23993

Actaully, the 2011 CWC squad of Kenya is way better than that of Zim. Let me explain:

The squads:

Zimbabwe: Elton Chigumbura (captain), Regis Chakabva, Charles Coventry, Graeme Cremer, Craig Ervine, Sean Ervine, Greg Lamb, Shingi Masakadza, Chris Mpofu, Ray Price, Ed Rainsford, Tatenda Taibu, Brendan Taylor, Prosper Utseya, Sean Williams.

Kenya: Jimmy Kamande (capt), Seren Waters, Alex Obanda, David Obuya, Collins Obuya, Steve Tikolo, Tanmay Mishra, Rakep Patel, Maurice Ouma, Thomas Odoyo, Nehemiah Odhiambo, Elijah Otieno, Peter Ongondo, Shem Ngoche, James Ngoche.


Now, for the comparisons:

Jimmy Kamande (1028 runs @ 18.03, Career ODI bowling Average of 44.42) > Prosper Utseya (984 runs @ 15.87, Career ODI bowling average of 46.11)
Tanmay Mishra (Averages 31.73 after 29 ODIs, has bowled 3 deliveries in ODIs) > Charles Coventry (Averages 26.76 after 34 ODIs, has bowled 0 deliveries in ODIs)
James Ngoche (9 matches, 13 wickets @ 18.23; Economy rate: 3.08) > Greg Lamb (9 matches, 8 wickets @ 33.37; Economy rate: 3.98)
We already know this one: Alex Obanda (Career ODI batting average: 34.18) > Brendan Taylor (Career ODI batting average: 32.42)
Collins Obuya (Career ODI batting average: 24.07; Career ODI blowling average Vs. Srilanka: 8.85) > Graeme Cremer (Career ODI batting average: 13.56; Career ODI bowling average Vs. Srilanka: 35.50)
Nehemiah Odhiambo (57 wickets @ 34.29) > Christopher Mpofu (54 wickets @ 37.03)
Thomas Odoyo (Career ODI batting average: 24.12; Career ODI bowling average: 29.66) > Elton Chigumbura (Career ODI batting average: 24.12; Career ODI bowling average: 38.27)
Peter Ongondo (77 wickets @ 29.46) > Ed Rainsford (45 wickets at 31.13)
Elijah Otieno (Career ODI economy rate: 5.87) > Shingi Masakadza (Career ODI economy rate: 8.01)
Maurice Ouma (Highest ODI score: 61) > Regis Chakabva (Highest ODI score: 45)
Seren Waters (Highest ODI score: 74; Career ODI sixes: 1) > Craig Ervine (Highest ODI score: 67*; Career ODI sixes: 0)
Rakep Patel (Highest ODI score: 92; Career ODI economy rate: 4.69) > Sean Williams (Highest ODI score: 75; Career ODI economy rate: 5.05)
David Obuya (Batting average Vs. Zim: 30.70) > Tatenda Taibu (Batting average Vs. Kenya: 14.00)
Steve Tikolo (Career ODI batting average: 29.88; Career ODI bowling average: 32.86) > Sean Ervine (Career ODI batting average: 25.85; Career ODI bowling average: 38.07)

And the clinching one:

Shem Ngoche (Career ODI economy rate: 3.40) > Raymond Price (Career ODI economy rate: 3.88)

This is gold!

[jaybro]

One swallow does not a summer make.

We beat SA in '99 WC. Didn't mean we were better than them. That team regularly smashed Kenya. They had a bad day and Kenya were on a roll. Doesn't mean we were going to be behind them in the rankings. Why not post all the scorecards of Zim v Kenya instead of one?

A sample size of one may be a FACT, but it is not necessarily a statistically significant fact.

Struggling to believe you don't understand that, which raises questions about how you handle stats in general.

Well said

[pariah]

eugene you have neither responded to nor advanced the OP. CrimsonAvenger 2011 is 8 years after 2003, and like eugene you're trying to make the wrong set/generation of players the basis of your argument. In any case your referenced post was in jest, and we have - on a serious note - discussed Kenya several times on this forum(and newbies can go to those threads to read what said about Kenyan bowlers and batsmen).

Jemisi I get the point that you're trying to make, but had you read my posts properly you would have seen that's not what it seeks to ignore. The overall win/loss stats were provided for both sets of periods. This wasn't a mere loss like CWC SA/IND losing to ZIM it was a thorough thrashing, much like what AFG/SCO/NED have been doing to "the favourites"(my new name for the selections which are routinely leaving out better players and have strange ).

Anyway, back to the topic, focus on the ageing rebels and their replacements. The idea is to assume "what would have transpired had the rebel crisis not happened?" I'm saying the old generation were poor, and their replacements would have had an even poorer record even if they hadn't been hindered by quotas and admin issues. Team AC-Andy and Co were hopeless by overall international standards, so hopeles that even Cricinfo splitting the two "Zimbabwes" wouldn't make any difference!