[Match Thread] Zimbabwe v Netherlands, 1st ODI, Harare, 21 Mar 2023

[Kriterion_BD]

I'm going to be that guy. I don't think we're qualifying for the World Cup.

Its going to take something very special to qualify. My honest feel is ZIM has about 10% chance of making it through. The reason its that low is that while ZIM can definitely upset one of WI and SL, those two teams are still a cut above the rest and would likely win all their other games to clinch a qualifying berth. But if Zimbabwe beats one of WI and SL, they are also equally likely to lose to a USA or Nepal and thats a zero sum scenario. Whilst teams like USA and Nepal are still a notch below ZIM...its been abundantly clear for many years that Ireland, Scotland, and Netherlands are at worst as good as ZIM and on their day slightly better. That leaves zero margin for error, and even good teams can rarely string 5-6 perfect games together.

And thats assuming a team with 4-5 guys aged 35 or older stay fit to give them a full strength squad.

Thus qualification is going to require a perfect storm of SEVERAL improbable events occuring together:

1) Everyone has to be fit and in form.
2) Have to upset at least one of WI or SL
3) Cannot be upset by teams like Nepal or Oman
4) Have to win all games vs near-peer teams Ireland/Scotland/Netherlands

If each of these has an independent probability of 25% you can see that all 4 of them occuring together has a very very tiny probability. And in my estimation, even getting 3 out of 4 means ZIM will get knocked out.

[jaybro]

Ervine absolutely did the right thing

News flash they lost from a position they should never have even gone to close to losing.

Don't know how you can say he did the right thing without even the consideration he could have done it differently.

[CrimsonAvenger]

There are nuances here, instead of debating at the two extremes of Ervine was absolutely correct vs he was an absolute idiot.

I think bowling out Wellington was a brilliant idea. He was on song, even got the most important wicket in the 1st ball of his 10th over. Perfectly executed what his captain wanted of him. But Ervine should have retained may be 3 overs each of Richie and Blessing instead of 2 each. Then he would have had better flexibility to rotate them with Evans in the last 10 overs. But more important than this was continuing to go with the expensive spin of Burl, Wes and Raza even after they had covered the bare minimum 10 overs of the 5th bowler. At least a change to bring in Evans soon after 10 overs of the 5th bowler was done was very important, especially since they were taking a liking to spin and accelerating. Anyone could sense that they were cruising and something different had to be tried. Except Wellington, other 3 frontline bowlers had overs up their sleeve.

Anyway, we already know Ervine doesn't come across as an intelligent skipper with his track record as well. In this case, sticking to spin when the writing was on the wall was definite stupidity, but his earlier actions weren't, in my view. Wellington dropping catches was unexpected. He is usually one of the safest. So looks like everything went wrong in the dying stages of the match. In fact, in the post-Streak era, probably the only skipper who seemed to have had the nuances to think a couple of steps ahead of the game was Taibu - and he had the worst XIs to manage too.

Anyway, we could only make a match out of it thanks to Madande (what a knock, and what an answer to the selectors!) along with Wellington and Richie (all-round). Surely Burl has to take more responsibility than he does with the bat. This is aloofness at Vermeulen levels. He cannot go on without owning more responsibilities with so many years of international experience under his belt. Also, definite case to promote Wellington at least above Evans given recent performances. In fact, Evans hasn't lived up to the expectations at all, with the bat.

[jaybro]

Also, definite case to promote Wellington at least above Evans given recent performances. In fact, Evans hasn't lived up to the expectations at all, with the bat.

I couldn't believe how bad Wellington's numbers are as a batsman in ODI cricket, he averages just over 7 and only passed 100 ODI runs in his innings yesterday. I know he's only played 27 matches, but that seems wild that a guy who debuted in 2015 only just went pass 100 runs 8 years later.

I do agree though, he is probably a safer batsman than Evans atm, I guess batting low down the innings having to come in and score quickly doesn't suit his strengths. But, coming in like he did yesterday & rescuing an innings is probably more in his area of strength.

[TapsC2]

Didn't watch the end. Saw the scorecard and I knew that if I come here I would find people questioning some decisions from the captain. It is what it is.

Our chances aren't good because as mentioned before you need a perfect campaign to qualify. It's cut throat. We always have a shocking loss in us. The only difference from 2018 is that even though the West Indies and Sri Lanka are better than everybody else, the other teams have improved a lot so there is no guarantee that they won't lose a game like last time. For example Ireland won an ODI series in the Caribbean recently. Our recent record against Sri Lanka shows we can beat them. So I don't think anybody is actually guaranteed to qualify

As for the series I did expect a 2-1 win meaning I knew the Dutch would win at 1. Let's see what happens.

[TapsC2]

Another big problem is whoever bats second in Harare has a massive advantage. It flattened out perfectly. The gaps between the teams isn't that big anymore meaning that winning the toss in Harare in winter will narrow almost any gap between the sides. Bangladesh suffered heavily from this last year if we are also honest with ourselves here.

The winter here will see the team batting first fighting for their lives from 9.30 to about 10.45 and on the other side from about 2pm onwards the weather will flatten out the pitch perfectly. The change is actually not too extreme right now

[secretzimbo]

Taps speaks a lot of sense

[secretzimbo]

I'm going to be that guy. I don't think we're qualifying for the World Cup.

We knew you’d think that tbf

[Googly]

Zc have had years to re-lay 3 decks. There's about 12 of them at HSC. It's going to bite us. It's just bone idleness.
It can be done quickly and expertly without it looking like a building site if they get someone else to do it.

That batter was going downtown. When Welly dropped that first catch I thought they'd swap him out. Happens a lot in County cricket. You see the poor guy have to do the walk of shame to a less critical position . Is he one of the better fielders? I'd have put my best two at long off and long on for that guy.

The deck was spicy so hard to say anything about those early dismissals. Raza's was soft and Brad Evans had the wrong game plan imo. He needs to put away the sweep unless it's outside the line. As I saw him bring it out on basically the first ball he faced I knew it wasn't going to end well. DH loves guys who paddle and sweep and Evans has got good hands, but it was way too early, he needed to have a look and get his eye in. That touch paddle off the full toss should have been swept. As I saw that shot I knew he was going to tie himself in a knot. We see glimpses of how good he could be, but that's about it, no innings of substance.
I'm a straight bat advocate unless the guy can sweep in his sleep or he's getting bogged down or it's T20. It was none of the above. The reality is that a reverse outside the line is a safe shot, a sweep off the stumps is not. A good bowler will get you if you play it too often. In a net situation a good sweeper will get one wrong in 20 deliveries, they're difficult shots to master, plus as soon as the deck is bouncing or staying low it makes it even harder.

The one error was surely not giving Evans his 10 overs. He was bowling well and keeping the batsmen quiet.

Credit must go to that batsman though, that was actually one of the best run chases you'll ever see.

[secretzimbo]

A year ago from 90-7 we probably would have been all out for 130 and then they would have chased it inside 25 overs.
It’s a big positive that we made a game of it at all from where we were. This team has character and fight and belief at least!! Granted it disappeared a bit towards the end of their chase, but still. Being able to bat down to 9 or 10 is huge.
We needed a 50 from someone in the top 6 and then it probably would have been enough. Chances are, 90% of the time one of those top order guys is going to do better than they did yesterday.

Still a problem (as it has been for many years) that none of our ‘big’ players have a good day all at the same time as each other though.