Phantom Draft

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brmtaylor.com admin
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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by brmtaylor.com admin »

foreignfield wrote:As I understand it, totoro uses an established program which simulates matches; here's a scorecard with commentary: http://www.planetcricket.net/forums/cri ... 5-196.html

I don't know what other programs are out there, but we probably do not need to reinvent the wheel .. in the end it's all fun and games, right? :D
Yep, I'm talking about a formula to determine the ranking out of 40 as totoro mentioned:

"You can put in a number between 100 - 1, but I have found that it works better if you rate them between 1 & 40"

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by totoro »

brmtaylor.com admin wrote:In that case, we'll need something to differentiate the bowlers or else there's no strategic benefit to having spinners or seamers in the squad.

1. Possibly, a 20% weighting added to seamers for games played on "Normal" pitches and a 20% weighting added to spinners for games played on "Poor" pitches? That way we have some more strategy involved in team selections.

2. I think it would also be good if the captains can target certain players. For instance, each captain is allowed to choose 1 "development" player before a match, whose weightings would be increased by 10%. That way a captain is not penalised too much if they choose to give a young player game time. A player like Sauramba for example doesn't have a stellar record right now, but if you chose to make him a development player then he might have a decent shot at improving his record.

3. Likewise, the opposition captain can choose one "targeted" player (someone who their bowlers will give a lot of chin music or the batsmen will attack :twisted:) whose weighting would be reduced by 5%. Some more strategy for the captains... do they try and reduce the influence of a good player, offset the influence of a development player, etc?

What do the franchises think of these ideas?
How does everyone want me to rate the players: recent form; career; or both?
What we need is a transparent formula, so we can just make a script and the captains type in their chosen XI and it will generate the ranking points automatically. It will make it completely scientific and unobjective.

There's a third consideration too - the simulated form. If we only base the players rankings on domestic and international statistics, then their ranking points will never change from match to match. So there's no reason for franchises to change their teams too much irrespective of the results (outside of seamers vs spinners as mentioned above). If we take simulated form into account then team selection becomes an important strategy. But because domestic and international form will change whenever a real match is played, it doesn't necessarily mean a franchise will want to de-list a player that doesn't perform well in the simulations.

Just throwing some stuff out there to see what will stick... 45% international form, 35% domestic form, 20% simulated form (half of each group being "recent form", so 22.5% recent international form and 22.5% overall international form, etc). Given the way international players dominate the domestic scene it's probably not too skewed? Now what the make up of each percentage is... strike rate, average, highest score, best bowling figures, what subset is allocated to recent form... that's a whole new discussion I guess?
That all sounds good, and you've thought of some things that haven't been considered over on PC.

I agree with the seamers being given extra weighting on normal pitches, however if spinners are made more dangerous on a poor pitch, the scores could be very low.

Another option that would link in with that, is if I classify normal pitches as either "green" or "dry" pitches. One will favour seamers, and the other spinners. That would give the option of possibly removing the poor pitch, because it can sometimes produce strange results. :)

It will be difficult for me to take simulated form into consideration, until the end of the season. It will be something the managers will need to consider though. Hopefully they understand that all the members in their squad are valuable, and only decide to remove them if they feel the balance of the squad / team isn't right. ;)

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by brmtaylor.com admin »

totoro wrote:Another option that would link in with that, is if I classify normal pitches as either "green" or "dry" pitches. One will favour seamers, and the other spinners. That would give the option of possibly removing the poor pitch, because it can sometimes produce strange results. :)
Cool! That sounds like a good idea :)
It will be difficult for me to take simulated form into consideration, until the end of the season. It will be something the managers will need to consider though. Hopefully they understand that all the members in their squad are valuable, and only decide to remove them if they feel the balance of the squad / team isn't right. ;)
Again, just throwing stuff out there to see what sticks... as one of the better batsmen going around in the Logan Cup what score would you normally give for H Masakadza's batting?

Using H Masakadza as an example, and using batting averages only as the indicator:
Intl:
0.225 * 26.91 (overall Test avg) ............... 6.05
0.225 * 35.56 (last 10 Test innings avg) ....... 8.00

First Class:
0.175 * 41.11 (overall FC avg) ................. 7.19
0.175 * 55.30 (last 10 FC innings avg) ......... 9.68
Let's assume an average of 50.00 overall in simulations and 50.00 in the last 10 simulation innings, it would give Masakadza a weighted average of 43.42. Could this be used as his batting ranking? Is this too high? When you put in scores of 1 to 40 with the bat, is 1 Macgill and 40 Bradman?

A Neville Madziva (again with a simulated average of 50) would get something like 27.74. By comparison, someone like Chakabva gets a huge boost because of his international experience (and good form right now) and would get something like 38.96.

Could we use a bell curve to ensure a proper distribution of batsmen from 1 to 40?

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by foreignfield »

Interesting stuff, and it would be great if you two could work out some magic formula, bell curves and everything :)

But I guess as far the owners are concerned a fair amount of intransparency is very much in order. If we can do the maths ourselves to the last decimal, picking sides might become a bit predictive and less fun. So you should better not share all your secrets with us ;)

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by foreignfield »

Just for curiosity's sake I have calculated each team's batting and bowling average based on this season's Logan Cup only. I've taken the best ten batsmen (not outs are ignored) and top seven bowlers. Of course this very much reflects the vagaries of your usual domestic season.

Mountaineers
Batting 2789/88 = 31.69
Bowling 77/1839 = 23.89

Eagles
Batting 2333/66 = 35.35
Bowling 51/1669 = 32.71 (I was even generous and left out Mutombodzi, but Kamungozi also has a terrible FC average)

Rhinos
Batting 2789/91 = 30.65
Bowling 129/2510 = 19.46

Tuskers
Batting 3039/106 = 28.67
Bowling 160/3340 = 20.88

Jemisi and zimfan1 picked up all the top wicket takers in the Logan Cup this season (all guys who played a full season), and this clearly shows.

If you take the difference between both averages, Rhinos come out top, Mountaineers and Tuskers are neck and neck, while Eagles lag behind due to their bowling.

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by Jemisi »

Rhinos come out on top...let's go with those numbers :D

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by CrimsonAvenger »

I have no idea what you guys have been talking about all this simulation et al. and have never been part of any such activity before, and could only understand the latest post by foriegnfield :).

So, you guys decide a formula, and let us see how things go...

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by zimbos_05 »

CrimsonAvenger wrote:
zimbos_05 wrote:There was no one else we could justify using that Veto on really. We knew Vitori would go early, but we wanted to secure two solid batsmen first because bowling options are a plenty. Once we knew that, the veto could only really be used on Welch. He is young and talented. He offers a lot to this team and he comes with the potential to be with us for a very long time. We were quite happy to lose out on some of our players as we knew there were plenty of players available of a similar talent, or younger offering much more potential.

Many of the guys we had in the $3000 range we just not worth it and i couldtn think of anyone else who was worth the veto too.
Interesting. We thought Regis Chakabva would be vetoed. Surprised he was not. We even waited to see if he gets vetoed, so that we can move on to Welch as our next pick :)
We couldn't justify keeping him when Welch has a decent enough average is less games, and is much younger with plenty to offer as an all rounder. We always wanted to keep Gumbie so Chakabva would have meant we would have three wks and Gumbie would potentially have missed out. We were more certain on Welch than on Chakabva.

I have skimmed most of the last posts, and really not sure what is going on. Will have to have a read through the format again and take it from there. Sounds like i have the top team in terms of batting average, worst in terms of bowling. Should be fun then.

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by foreignfield »

zimbos_05 wrote:Sounds like i have the top team in terms of batting average, worst in terms of bowling. Should be fun then.
That was just based on the current Logan Cup stats, and they are a little bit skewed because many of the top guys did not play a lot. The simulation thing that is being talked about will also take into account career averages.

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Re: Phantom Draft

Post by Jemisi »

So are we going to start with FC XIs? Goats will you go first or just in any order?

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